CONCEPT MODEL · LOCAL SIMULATION
BROWSER SIMULATIONBrier calibration
Score a probability against a resolved outcome and compare a baseline.
SIMULATED RESULTLOWER CASE ERROR
Forecast scores better than this baseline
Binary Brier score = (p − o)² = 0.090. Lower is better for the same event definition and resolved outcome; one case does not establish calibration.
Forecast Brier0.090
Baseline Brier0.250
OutcomeResolved: yes
- 01State event
- 02Record probability
- 03Wait for resolution
- 04Lower error on this case
Teaching model only. It does not call GenOS, execute agents, prove a claim, or represent a recorded run.