Biocenosis
Show how quorum, evidence, and dissent shape a collective judgment.
Quorum reached; preserve minority arguments
Participation and dissent remain separate signals. A numerical majority is not treated as a truth oracle.
- 01Private judgments
- 02Commit and reveal
- 03Arguments and dissent
- 04Aggregate with quorum
Teaching model only. It does not call GenOS, execute agents, prove a claim, or represent a recorded run.
A question this model cannot answer alone
- Hypothesis
- Does an explicit ballot improve forecast calibration over the strongest individual forecast?
- Control
- Best individual forecaster, scored on the same resolved outcomes.
- Measure
- Brier score, coverage, abstention, and preserved dissent.
- Falsifier
- The aggregate has worse Brier score or hides unresolved outcomes or minority evidence.
Pre-register task population, software/model versions, random seeds, and a shared budget before running either arm. The browser simulation is not evidence for this hypothesis.